Washington d.c.: Fresh US strikes on Iran and Tehran's renewed attacks on American bases in the Persian Gulf, coupled with President Donald Trump's announcement of reinstating a naval blockade on Iranian shipping, have escalated the conflict into a new and complex phase.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, despite the intensifying military exchanges, Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and a renowned US expert on irregular warfare, believes that the ongoing violence mirrors the unpredictable path many wars take before reaching a diplomatic resolution. He notes that while the US and Iran have a memorandum of understanding aimed at continuing dialogue, the history of war negotiations often involves repeated breakdowns and hostilities before achieving a cease-fire.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is underscored by the current crisis, where commercial shipping has dramatically slowed. Schroden highlights the economic ramifications globally, as the strait's closure exacerbates conditions like rising food and fuel prices. He also raises concerns about the long-term implications on the principles of freedom of navigation in international waters, with Iran asserting control over the strait and the US positioning itself as a transit guarantor.
Operationally, the US Navy faces challenges in enforcing the blockade and ensuring safe passage through the strait, given the multi-faceted threats from Iran, including sea mines, attack craft, and missile capabilities. Schroden emphasizes the compounded risk to US naval forces with repeated escort missions through the strait.
The blockade aims to scrutinize all vessels, except humanitarian shipments, posing difficulties in distinguishing legitimate traffic from potential threats. Schroden indicates that the US Navy will rely on intelligence and analysis to prioritize inspections, given resource constraints.
The geopolitical stance of the US and Iran further complicates the situation for commercial shipping, with companies weighing risks against insurance costs. Schroden reflects on the military balance, noting that despite the destruction of Iran's conventional navy, its asymmetric warfare capabilities remain robust.
The evolving nature of maritime warfare, with increased use of drones and unmanned systems, is highlighted by Schroden as a trend likely to grow, especially among countries lacking conventional naval power. While the US tests new technologies, the strategic value lies in the insights gained rather than immediate battlefield advantages.