Muscat: OPEC today lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026, citing the fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict, while leaving its full-year estimates unchanged.

According to Oman News Agency, in its monthly report, the organization projected average global oil demand of 105.07 million barrels per day for the second quarter, down from last month's estimate of 105.57 million barrels per day - a reduction of roughly 500,000 barrels per day.

OPEC said the revision, which applies to both the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries, is mainly due to "temporary minor weakness" in demand growth caused by geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The cartel expects the shortfall to be offset in the second half of the year.

The organization kept its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at around 1.4 million barrels per day, bringing total demand to approximately 106.5 million barrels per day. Its 2027 estimate also remained steady at roughly 1.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC's own production fell sharply to 20.79 million barrels per day - the steepest decline since the 1980s - driven by steep output cuts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

The report noted that energy market disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and supply chain breakdowns, have contributed to the drop, at a time when demand forecasts are becoming increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

On non-OPEC+ supply, the organization kept its 2026 production growth forecast at about 630,000 barrels per day, with the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina expected to lead the increase.

OPEC stressed that oil markets will remain vulnerable to volatility in the coming period amid persistent regional tensions and supply disruptions, despite expectations of a gradual rebalancing in the second half of the year.