Tehran: The war with Iran "is going to end immediately after the [US midterm] election because they can't hold out any longer," US President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday, addressing Iran's leadership at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas. Trump characterized the upcoming November 3 vote as "one of the most important elections of your lives" and reiterated his defense of the war against Iran, claiming it was initiated to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He also assured that oil prices would decrease once the US had secured victory in the conflict. However, Trump's assurances face scrutiny as rising gas prices pose a threat to Republican prospects in the midterms.
According to Deutsche Welle, Brent crude prices surged to over $100 per barrel on Wednesday, following the escalation of conflict with the US targeting Iranian oil tankers in response to Iran's assault on a US warship. Mohammad Ghaedi, a Middle East expert at George Washington University, explained that Iran views escalation as a controlled bargaining tool rather than an end goal. Iran aims to impose costs on the US without provoking a full-scale war, keeping missile attacks on US naval vessels limited to avoid a disproportionate American response.
Ghaedi noted that Tehran's ideal outcome would be a return to the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad, which had previously paused the full-scale conflict. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that Tehran would adhere to the memorandum if the US reciprocated. However, the requirement for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, as per the memorandum's first provision, complicates this scenario, especially with Israeli elections approaching on October 27, just days before the US midterms.
The Reuters news agency reported on September 2 that Trump's advisers are advocating for restraint in escalating the conflict to avoid negative electoral consequences for Republicans. The White House is contemplating expanding military actions post-elections, though Iran is wary of escalating tensions further, particularly if Democrats gain control of Congress and impose constraints on Trump's war conduct.
Ahmad Alavi, an Iranian economics professor, warns that economic pressure alone won't lead to political concessions from Iran. If Tehran perceives the pressure as a threat to its survival, it might choose military escalation over concessions. Alavi suggests that Iran would be more open to negotiation if there were clear prospects for relief and established negotiation channels.
Meanwhile, Gulf states, including Oman, are seeking a diplomatic resolution to secure commercial shipping safety through the Strait of Hormuz, with a meeting planned in Salalah, Oman, next week. Such an agreement would require US approval due to the ongoing naval blockade against Iran.
Despite diplomatic efforts, Iran's leadership maintains a hardline public stance. On September 9, Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of parliament, declared Iran's commitment to continue the war until victory. The IRGC demanded a cessation of US hostilities on September 8, and on September 10, released a video purportedly showing the capture of a US unmanned underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz.